The march toward a disastrous war with Iran seems to have finally hit a bump in the road.  The new National Intelligence Estimate suggests that Iran ended its nuclear weapons program in 2003.

Could this be a step toward rationality in our relationship with Tehran? Is a day coming when we understand the Iranians as a more or less rational people pursuing their self-interest in a methodical and predictable way?   Are normalized diplomatic relations on the distant horizon?  Will poor Kim Jong-il finally be able to get some attention for actually doing the things we wrongly accuse Iran of?

Probably not.  The Bush Administration has made it clear that this will not change its policy toward Tehran.  The problem with this attitude is that it creates a situation in which Iran can’t win.  If they continue with their nuke program, we will push for additional sanctions and military intervention.  If they cease their nuke program, we will push for additional sanctions and military intervention.  A (severely whittled down) stick and no carrot leave the U.S. with no influence at all.

The sad reality is that, until we elect a new president, our policy toward the Middle East will continue to be based largely on imaginary WMD programs.  Not ideal, but not as dangerous as it was before the new NIE, either.

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