Pop Quiz: Understanding Iran
If there’s one thing we Americans are spectacularly bad at, it’s putting ourselves in other people’s shoes. There are a lot of reasons, I suppose: Geographic isolation, the fact that we’ve been so successful, etc. But it’s getting kind of dangerous.
This administration in particular has made an art of creating bizarre fantasies about the Middle East and then hiring “experts” to agree with those illusions. Ideologically comfortable, but is it wise to take action with no clue what our opponent’s countermove might be? Remember “They’ll welcome us as liberators?” I’ve spent less than a month in the Middle East spaced out over two decades and even I knew better than that.
As a thriller writer, I spend a lot of time thinking about what makes villains tick. And since Iran is shaping up to be our next order of business, I’ve come up with a short quiz to give people the tools to predict that country’s positions. It’s not as hard as everyone makes it look.
1: When the Soviet Union, a country that made no bones about wanting to do America harm, invaded Afghanistan, the U.S. started a massive program of support for the Afghan insurgency to keep the Soviets from consolidating their position.
Therefore, when America, a country that makes no bones about wanting to do Iran harm, invades Iraq, we can expect the Iranians to:
A: Welcome us as liberators
B: Help us build airbases where we can stage bombers for cross-border runs
C: Start a massive program of support for the insurgency to keep America from consolidating its position.
2: In reaction to being threatened with a preemptive nuclear strike by the Soviets, the U.S. built an elaborate nuclear deterrent.
Therefore, in reaction to being threatened with a preemptive nuclear strike by the Americans, the Iranians will:
A: Make Paris Hilton queen
B: Disband their military and do whatever we say
C: Attempt to build an elaborate nuclear deterrent
3: As Americans have come to feel increasingly threatened, we have turned to religion for comfort. More and more, we encourage the weakening of the separation of church and state and insist that our politicians espouse conservative religious values.
Therefore, as the Iranians feel increasingly threatened they will:
A: Convert to Christianity
B: Become an atheistic, secular state
C: Insist on increasing religious participation in their government
4: In the face of imminent danger, G.W. Bush has never given in to our opponents, has stepped up his tough-guy rhetoric, and has tried as hard as he can to make the threat to the average American as stark as possible.
Therefore, in the face of imminent danger, we can expect Ahmadinejad to:
A: Cower and tell his people to do whatever we say
B: Duck and cover
C: Never give in to the U.S., step up his tough-guy rhetoric, and try as hard as he can to make the danger to the average Iranian as stark as possible.
If you answered C on every question, I hope you’ll consider going to work for Homeland Security. If you answered A on every question, you should probably seek political office.